| |
| |
|
Overbought/Oversold
Has your broker ever told you that a stock is "overbought" or "oversold"? He probably went on the explain that the stock you own (I hope you didn't) had gone down so far that it now was oversold and due for a rally. He might also have encouraged you to buy an equal amount to "dollar cost average" your position so that when ("if"- he didn't say that, I did)) it did go back up you could "get out even". He might even say you "could make a fortune". Waiting to get out even is the great trap that is preached by all the big Maul Street brokerage houses. What is even worse is most brokers and financial planners believe it. What happened to all those beautiful company reports sent to you telling how wonderful this stock was before you bought it. Maybe you better read those back to him. Brokerage companies do not want you to sell. When any stock is going either up or down for any extended period of time it does seem logical that it can become overbought or oversold, but let's examine what that means to your ownership. The reason a stock started up is because the underlying profit projection is going to produce substantial profits that will make the stock more valuable. At some point it is going to reach a true valuation and should stop advancing. What usually happens is it goes beyond true valuation to what could be called overbought (over valued) and then starts down. You may be encouraged to buy when a particular stock becomes "hot" and everyone is buying it. When all the sheep are buying you want to be a seller or you will also be sheared. Suppose all this was in anticipation of future profits that did not materialize? Then the rise would turn over and head down. This would be more likely for a smaller company than one of the giants, but giants have been toppled. If any fraud was involved the company might even go bankrupt. Think back to WorldCom that went to the moon and was finally flushed down the sewer. Did it EVER while it was tanking become oversold for a rally? Not hardly because there was no value. Unless you truly understand how to trade overbought and oversold situations the best thing to do is keep your hands in your pockets. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder. Overbought and oversold is in the mind of the buyer/seller. About The Author Copyright 2004 All rights reserved. Albert W. Thomas Former 17 year exchange member, floor trader and brokerage company owner. F*R*E*E investment letter www.mutualfundmagic.com. Author of best seller "IF IT DOESN'T GO UP, DON'T BUY IT!"
MORE RESOURCES:
Google News |
|
|
|
RELATED ARTICLES
Trading Systems A trading system consists of a set of rules for viewing markets and making trades. The advantages of trading systems can be hidden when they become associated with trading platforms involving trade order submission and processing. It Is Never Too Early To Start A Roth IRA! The Roth is kind of weird until you get used to it in terms of how much you can put in (contribute) each year depending on how much you earn (compensation). Because of this you really have two limits, one dealing with your compensation and the other dealing with your contribution. Risk and Reward If you are doing your own investing in the stock market, what would be the first question you would ask yourself before you make any trade or investment? If your answer is how fundamentally sound the stock is, or whether the stock just broke out of a trading range on a chart, or the fact that the stock has gone down 50% in the last 6 months, or whether the volatility is low now so it is a good time to buy or sell, then you are probably on the road to ruin. These strategies have nothing in common with each other and there are all kinds of different criteria that I did not mention that have nothing in common with each other. Retirement Is A Scary Proposition If Youre Without A Plan, And Running Out Of Time Of the 75 million baby boomers nearing retirement today, many are:* Debt Ridden* Severely unprepared for retirement* Under Funded* Without a StrategyThis is a very serious problem in a country that we can all remember used to assure most people of a retirement where you are taken care of financially.We all know that social security alone is not the answer to this problem. Why You Need To Buy and Sell Gold Coins (Part 3) Putting Rare Coin Market Cycles to Work for You.. Investing & Online Stock & Share Trading- The Stock & Share Markets are Booming But Be Warned I had the pleasure of being invited on a friend's yacht to sail in a race on Sydney Harbour yesterday. On board, as one of our motley crew, I met a top ranking corporate executive from one of Australia's largest banks, who we'll call 'Phil' here for the purpose of this article. Sitcom Investing A fickle stock market encourages good-humored mockery.Recently, as I watched the premiere of a sitcom, an obvious omission breached television etiquette. Success Trading: Yet More Basic Terminology for New Traders In this day and age of online brokers for virtually every market out there, there are some very useful tools that will help protect your account and lock in profits when you have them. It is our recommendation that you use a good online broker and take advantage of not only the low commissions they offer, but also the automated tools that are available. Selecting Rules for Investing and Trading There are three important differences between investing and trading. Overlooking them can lead to confusion. Wit and Wisdom on Money, Wall Street and Success - Part #1 I love to collect quotes as they concisely promote a philosophy which is readily understandable.In my 25+ years of investing I have collected hundreds of quotes related to Wisdom, Wall Street and Success. Porters Five Forces Analysis If you've ever listened to Warren Buffett talk about investing, you've heard him mention the idea of a company's moat. The moat is a simple way of describing a company's competitive advantages. How To Start Investing For Financial Independence, Part 1 Today, I am going to start a multi-part series about how to go from being a beginning investor to being "financially independent" in a steady and predictable way. At our website, we get tons of e-mails about how do I start, how do I start with little $'s, etc. Asset Allocation: Critical to Your Investment Success Asset allocation is a critical component of investing success. Both research and academic studies show asset allocation to be single most significant factor in determining your financial goals. Holy Grail Investments Every year I go to the Money Show in Orlando, Florida. Thousands attend. Overbought/Oversold Has your broker ever told you that a stock is "overbought" or "oversold"? He probably went on the explain that the stock you own (I hope you didn't) had gone down so far that it now was oversold and due for a rally. He might also have encouraged you to buy an equal amount to "dollar cost average" your position so that when ("if"- he didn't say that, I did)) it did go back up you could "get out even". Why have Investment Plans for the Stock Market If you do not have an investment plan in the stock market you are subject to impulses, urges, hunches, premonitions, strong feelings, greed, panic, fear, indecision, and just plain foolishness. In my opinion, without a plan, without that clear conception of a total stock market investment strategy, the chances of successful investing in the stock market are pretty slim. Powerful Hidden Techniques Mystery Formula - The Covered Call Option Trading Buy-Write Strategy For better or worse, most option trading investors purchase stocks with the intent of holding their shares for an extended period of time.We do this mainly because the media and industry professionals have drilled into our heads, year after year, time after time, that it’s best to buy and hold. Poll Names Coin Laundries Best Investment For 2005 According to Morton Pollack, CEO of PWS, The Laundry Company and editor of the newsletter, "Historically, laundry owners have been a quiet group. Knowing they are onto a good thing, they've been pretty reticent. Tyranosaurus Rex Everyone knows T Rex was the most fearsome of all dinosaurs. He could and did kill everything in his path for food or maybe stupid meanness. The Arrow-Debreu Contingent Claims Model of Investment Throughout the discussion of speculation and stability, we emphasized that uncertainty theorists now have a generally accepted framework for modeling choice under uncertainty. Economic theorists have chosen to model uncertainty as the revelation of a state of the world.
|
|
|
|
|
